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  1. #301
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2018

    After some sideways consolidation between 1.7352 - 1.7448 more upside will be expected towards the next minor upside targets at 1.7924 on the way higher towards 1.8369 and 1.8423.

    Support is now seen at 1.7404 and again at 1.7352. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for a clear break above 1.7480 confirming the next part of the uptrend towards 1.7924.

    Only a break below support at 1.7301 will question the expected rally higher.

    R3: 1.7667
    R2: 1.7564
    R1: 1.7480
    Pivot: 1.7437
    S1: 1.7404
    S2: 1.7388
    S3: 1.7352

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 1.7226 and we will raise our stop to 1.7275.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  2. #302
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 13, 2018

    When the European market opens, there will be no Economic Data released, but the US will release the Economic Data such as Mortgage Delinquencies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1451.
    Strong Resistance:1.1444.
    Original Resistance: 1.1433.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1422.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1395.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1368.
    Original Support: 1.1357.
    Strong Support: 1.1346.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1339.


    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  3. #303
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2018

    We are looking for red wave ii to complete in the 1.7196 - 1.7258 target-zone. Once this correction is complete a new impulsive rally to above 1.7487 is expected for a continuation higher to 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next upside important upside targets. Short-term only a break above minor resistance at 1.7356 will indicate that a corrective low has been seen for red wave ii and red wave iii is taking over for a rally to above 1.7487.

    R3: 1.7487
    R2: 1.7417
    R1: 1.7355
    Pivot: 1.7322
    S1: 1.7258
    S2: 1.7226
    S3: 1.7196

    Trading recommendation:
    We will re-buy EUR at 1.7245 or upon a break above 1.7356.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  4. #304
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 15, 2018

    After a dip to 1.7220 all requirements for the correction in red wave i has been fulfilled. Therefore we are looking for a break above resistance at 1.7355 to confirm that red wave iii is developing for a break above the peak at 1.7484 as EUR/NZD moves higher towards 1.7924 and 1.8369.

    Short-term support is seen at 1.7243, this support should ideally be able to protect the downside, for the expected rally higher. If, however, a break below 1.7243 is seen, a final dip closer to 1.7196 should be expected to complete red wave ii.

    R3: 1.7487
    R2: 1.7417
    R1: 1.7355
    Pivot: 1.7299
    S1: 1.7270
    S2: 1.7243
    S3: 1.7220

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.


    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  5. #305
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2018

    A break above resistance at 1.7355 is still needed to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing.

    Short-term, we see support at 1.7262 and again at 1.7238. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.7355 towards 1.7484 and above, with the next important targets seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.

    R3: 1.7484
    R2: 1.7417
    R1: 1.7355
    Pivot: 1.7299
    S1: 1.7270
    S2: 1.7243
    S3: 1.7220

    Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  6. #306
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 20, 2018

    Nothing happening here. The range-trading between 1.7220 and 1.7310 continues to dominate the picture. We continue to look for a break above resistance at 1.7310 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7355 that confirms red wave ii has completed and red wave iii has taken over for the next impulsive rally towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next larger upside targets.

    R3: 1.7484
    R2: 1.7417
    R1: 1.7355
    Pivot: 1.7310
    S1: 1.7270
    S2: 1.7243
    S3: 1.7220

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  7. #307
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 22, 2018

    EUR/NZD once again failed to break above important short-term resistance at 1.7355 and instead turned around to make a small new low at 1.7211. This is a disappointment and keeps red wave ii alive, but it does not change our larger bullish count calling for more upside pressure above 1.7484 longer-term. To confirm that red wave ii has completed, we still need a break above resistance at 1.7355 and as long as this short-term important resistance remains able to cap the upside, red wave ii could dip closer to 1.7196, but the potential downside should be limited to here for a break above minor resistance at 1.7327 and more importantly a break above 1.7355 confirming red wave iii is developing for a rally above 1.7484.

    R3: 1.7355
    R2: 1.7327
    R1: 1.7275
    Pivot: 1.7255
    S1: 1.7221
    S2: 1.7196
    S3: 1.7162

    Trading recommendation:
    Ous stop was hit for a small loss of 20 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 1.7205 or upon a break above 1.7327 and place our stop at 1.7200.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  8. #308
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2018

    EUR/JPY still has not broken important short-term resistance at 128.48, but then it has not started to move strongly lower as we normally should expect at the completion of an expanded flat.

    Therefore we are shifting our preferred count in favor of wave C and II having completed with the test of 124.86 and wave III now in its infancy. Under this count EUR/JPY should make a small downward correction towards 127.23 - 127.33 area in red wave iv and then move higher towards the 128.92 - 129.32 area in red wave v.

    This will complete black wave i/ and should set the stage for a corrective decline in wave ii/ towards the 125.76 - 126.44 area before the next impulsive rally higher. That said, the possibility of a final dip closer to 124.62 remains possible, but time is running out fast.

    R3: 128.92
    R2: 128.48
    R1: 128.24
    Pivot: 127.93
    S1: 127.72
    S2: 127.50
    S3: 127.33

    Trading recommendation:
    We are 50% long EUR from 126.26 with our stop placed at 126.84. We will take profit on the final 50% at 128.75. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  9. #309
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

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  10. #310
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Confidence in the short-term growth of the euro is gradually declining

    The euro continues to rise against the U.S. dollar, which was formed in the middle of this month. It looks like investors are planning to end the month on a positive note, getting close to the large monthly resistance levels.

    Data on lending in the eurozone and confidence in France supported the euro in the first half of the day, but a number of international economic agencies predict a slowdown in the euro in the short term.

    For many technical indicators, risky assets are in the overbought zone, and a good downward correction has not been observed for a long time. Also, the EUR/USD pair got close to fairly large levels of resistance, from which a strong bearish trend was formed in the middle of summer of this year. This is another signal to the fact that there is no need to hurry with the purchase from the current levels.

    As I noted above, bank lending in the euro area continued to grow in July this year.

    According to the report of the European Central Bank, lending to non-financial companies increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Good indicators were also noted in household lending, which in July 2018 increased by 3.0%, as in the previous month.

    As for the M3 money supply indicator, it turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. According to the data, the annual growth of M3 monetary aggregate slowed to 4.0% from 4.5% in June. Economists had expected the indicator to grow by 4.3 percent.

    Good data on consumer morale in France maintained confidence in further economic growth. According to the report of the statistics agency, the consumer confidence index in France in August this year remained at 97 points against 97 in July. Economists had also forecast the index to be 97 points.

    An important report on consumer confidence in the US will be published on Tuesday in the afternoon, which can significantly affect the US dollar. It is expected that the indicator of consumer confidence in the US will decrease to 126.6 points in August against 127.4 points in July this year.

    As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the prospects for the movement of the euro remained unchanged. The failure of breaking the resistance of 1.1700 for today could lead to the decline of the European currency against the background of profit taking and return to the area of the lows of 1.1625 and 1.1590.

    News are provided by InstaForex

  11. #311
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Gold threw "bears" overboard

    The fastest intraday gold gain over the past five months, against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, forced the market to rack his brains over the question: from what level will the speculators start fixing profit in short positions en masse? Their net shorts by the end of the week by August 21 increased to 90 thousand contracts. Commerzbank notes that over the past few weeks, long positions have remained virtually unchanged, while short positions grew. The speech of the FRS chairman squeezed a part of the "bears" from the market.

    From what levels will the others run? From January's highs, gold lost about 11% of its value and speculators continued to actively sell in April-August against the backdrop of the strengthening of the US dollar. The latter took away from the precious metal the function of the asset-refuge and grew rapidly during the escalation period of trade conflicts between the US and other countries. At the same time, the divergence in economic growth and the monetary policy of central banks played into the hands of the "bulls" at the USD index. The Fed raised the federal funds rate, and the US GDP grew by 4.1% in the second quarter. Gold fans found it difficult to counter something to their opponents, which led to the growth of net shorts to record highs.

    Dynamics of speculative positions on gold

    It did not receive support from the precious metal from the side of physical demand. Along with the drop in ETF stocks to the lowest level since 2016 and the reduction of Chinese net imports from Hong Kong to 44 tonnes in July, which is the worst monthly indicator since the beginning of the year, bad news came from India. Heavy rains and floods inflicted $ 3 billion damage to local farmers, which is this class of buyers that is most active in the Diwali wedding season.

    Since mid-August, the situation began to change. Donald Trump confused the dollar bulls with comments about his dissatisfaction with the activities of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Fed, to which the latter responded with "dovish" rhetoric in Jackson Hole. The head of the Central Bank is confident that inflation will not go far above the 2% target, and therefore it is not necessary to raise the federal funds rate aggressively. After his speech, the dollar fell out of favor, marking the worst weekly dynamics since February. On the contrary, the bulls on XAU/USD came to their senses after the knockdown.

    I do not think that the dollar's positions are hopeless. The extent of the trade conflict between the US and China did not declined entirely. The chances of the four monetary restrictions in the FRS this year are still high (74%), the leading indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta signals a 4.6% increase in US GDP for the third quarter. The market turned out to be too emotional for the performances of the White House and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but gradually calmed down. According to RBC Wealth Management, only a break of $ 1225 ounce will launch an avalanche of mass closure towards speculative short positions.

    Technically, the necessary condition for continuing the rally is the ability of the bulls to gain a foothold above the 1209 mark.
    Gold daily chart

    * The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  12. #312
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 3, 2018

    EUR/JPY has declined nicely and is now hovering just below our 128.78 - 129.00 target zone. We are looking for a recovery towards 129.85 next and from there it will be decided, whether more corrective downside pressure is needed or not.

    In the short-term, a break above resistance at 129.14 will confirm the expected rally towards 129.85 and maybe even a continuation towards 130.87 and beyond.

    If support at 128.54 gives away first, then a minor dip to support at 128.30 should be expected before a recovery is seen, but the potential downside should be limited for now.

    R3: 129.85
    R2: 129.32
    R1: 129.14
    Pivot: 128.83
    S1: 128.54
    S2: 128.30
    S3: 127.94

    Trading recommendation:
    We took profit on our short position at 129.10 for a nice little profit of 58 pips and at the same time bought EUR. We have placed our stop at 128.10.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  13. #313
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Pound: we only dream of peace

    Political risks throw the British pound into the heat, then in the cold. The statement of the chief negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier that Brussels is ready to offer London an unprecedented deal, allowed quotes of the GBP/USD to soar above the psychologically important mark of 1.3. Alas, a few hours later Barnier declared a categorical disagreement with Theresa May's plan. At the same time, former Brexit Secretary David Davis said that he would vote against the Prime Minister's program, which involves significantly worse conditions than there were.

    Theresa May will have a daunting task - first to find a compromise within the country, and then to reach an agreement with the EU. The situation is aggravated by the Congress of the Conservative party in September. And if in June the prime minister managed to maintain her leadership, now she will have to undergo a new test. As a result of the aggravation of political risks, the volatility of the sterling may come out of the trading range and go up, which will negatively affect the positions of the bulls on the GBP/USD. Britain has the highest ratio of the negative current account to GDP in the G20 countries, its financing requires an inflow of investments, and it is difficult to lure non-residents to the local market in conditions of increased volatility of the pound.

    The dynamics of the volatility of the pound

    The pressure on sterling is exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in August was marked by the worst dynamics in the last two years. Export orders fell below the critical level of 50 for the first time since April 2016. As Bloomberg research shows, British companies preferred to save money instead of taking advantage of the devaluation and increase investment. Now, in the face of fears about the slowdown of the world economy, the decline in external demand creates serious problems for them.

    It should be recognized that the fall of the GBP/USD contributed to the gradual recovery of the US dollar. Difficulties in negotiations between the United States and Canada lead investors to the idea that the settlement of the dispute between Washington and Beijing may take even longer, and the truce between the US and the EU will end very soon. As a result, the risks of escalation of trade conflicts have increased, which provides support to the US dollar.

    The pound will have a rather difficult week, because after the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector, the indices of purchasing managers in the construction sector and in the service sector will be published. The last indicator is very important, as the non-production sector accounts for around 80% of British GDP. Add to this the continuing political risks, and it will become clear that the purchase of sterling should be treated very carefully. The aggravation of tensions between the EU and the UK and Theresa May's problems with retaining leadership in the Conservative party and with the vote in Parliament will become a catalyst for GBP/USD sales.

    Technically, a breakthrough of support at 1,2835 and 1,2775 will increase the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% and 113% for the "Shark" pattern.

    GBP/USD daily chart

    News are provided by InstaForex

  14. #314
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Brent inspired by hurricanes

    While investors are pondering whether OPEC and Russia will be able to compensate for the decline in Iranian exports, the approach of hurricane Gordon to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico allowed the "bulls" of Brent at arm's length to approach the psychologically important mark of $80 per barrel. The share of this territory accounts for about 17% of production and 45% of processing of all American oil, where it does not get agitated and start curtailing production? However, the impact of hurricanes on pricing in the oil market is often temporary. If a natural disaster is not as devastating as originally anticipated, buyers can begin to lock in profits.

    According to information gathered with the help of tankers, oil exports from Iran declined by 14% in August. Competent Wall Street Journal sources inside the country report a decrease from 2.3 million b/d in June to 1.5 million b/d in September. Deliveries of oil from the largest OPEC producer are falling by leaps and bounds, and in fact even before the entry into force of US sanctions in early November is still far. Exports to Europe fell by 45% in July, to South Korea-by 40%, India is considering a 50% reduction in purchases, although along with China and Turkey will continue to receive oil from Tehran. The hole should close the cartel, and Bloomberg experts expect production growth to 420 thousand b/d in August, to 32.74 million b/d. If the actual figure is smaller, "bulls" in Brent and WTI will continue their attacks.

    Dynamics of oil production by OPEC

    Despite the fact that Nigeria has tried to rein in speculators, saying that its efforts and the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola are sufficient enough to compensate for the reduction of Iranian exports, the big banks are reviewing their forecasts upwards. Thus, Barclays believes that the North sea variety under the influence of US sanctions and the decline in production in several producing countries may exceed $80 per barrel in the short term. The average price forecast for 2020 was raised from $55 to $75 per barrel. BNP Paribas doubts that the decline in supplies from Iran, the occasional interruptions in Libya and the decline in production in Venezuela will be offset by an increase in OPEC production. The bank expects to see Brent averaging at $79 per barrel in 2019.

    Favorable market conditions can easily be taken advantage of by American manufacturers. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the volume of production in the United States increased from May to June by 230 b/d and at any time could touch on the psychologically important level of 11 million b/d. Alas, the market still ignores this as a "bearish" driver for Brent and WTI, preferring to win back the factors of the hurricane and American sanctions against Iran.

    Technically, on the daily chart, Brent achieved a target of 88.6% on the "Shark" pattern, which increases the probability of rollback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave. If the bulls manage to update the September peak and gain a foothold above it, the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the target will increase by 113%.

    Brent, daily chart

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  15. #315
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Gold wings have been clipped

    August turned out to be the fifth consecutive month of gold closing in the red zone. The precious metal lost more than 2% amid the acceleration of the US economy, increasing the chances of four acts of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve in 2018 and tensions over trade wars. And only moderately - "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell in Jackson hole allowed the "bulls" to lick some of its wounds and try to break above $1210 per ounce. Alas, the joy of buyers was short-lived. In early September, the dollar began to recover in the face of problems in the negotiations between the United States and Canada and Donald Trump's intentions to expand the size of import duties against China by $200 billion.

    The dynamics of gold

    According to Citigroup Global Markets, investors do not need the gold in a world where stocks and bond yields are rising. The precious metal does not bring dividends and interest as equity and debt securities, and its status as a safe-haven asset has been taken away by the US dollar. As a result, speculators are increasing net short positions on the precious metal for the fifth week in a row and brought them to record highs. The stocks of the largest specialized fund SPDR Gold Shares fell to its lowest levels since November. From the levels of April highs, the index has lost 14%.

    However, everything in this world is relative. Silver feels much worse than gold, the loss of which is about 16% since the beginning of the year. Due to the high proportion of industrial use in aggregate demand, this metal is more vulnerable to a slowdown in the global economy than the sector leader. As a result, their ratio has soared to the highest levels since the global financial crisis.

    Dynamics of the ratio of gold and silver

    Further dynamics of the XAU/USD will entirely depend on the US dollar, whose position looks strong. First, the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicts that US GDP in the third quarter will accelerate to 4.6%. Secondly, the futures market estimates the probability of four Federal funds rate increases in 2018 at 75%. A month ago, the figure was only slightly higher than 60%. Third, Trump is about to expand the size of import tariffs against China, which will increase the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and put pressure on the markets of developing countries.

    What can save gold from the sixth consecutive month of closing in the red zone? Correction in the US stock market, verbal intervention of Donald Trump, the deterioration of macroeconomic statistics in the United States and, finally, a breakthrough in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. So far, three of the four above events seem unlikely, and the rhetoric of the US president tends to put pressure on the dollar only in the short term. In this regard, sales of the XAU/USD on growth remain valid.

    Technically, the inability of the bulls to hold gold prices above $1209 per ounce indicates their weakness. The initiative moved to the "bears", which broke through the lower border of the short-term upward trading channel and intend to restore the downward trend.

    Gold, daily chart

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

 
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