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  1. #211
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 18, 2017



    Overview:

    The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9893.

    Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9893 followed by 0.9948 as second resistance.

    Also, the level of 0.9787 represents a weekly pivot point for that it will act as major resistance/support in coming hours.

    Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because it is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.9893 towards the first support level at 0.9787 in order to test it.

    If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9787, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the levels of 0.9710 and 0.9655.

    However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.9893 (resistance 1), then this scenario may be invalidated.

    Additionally, the support is found at 0.9893, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily time frame. Since the trend is below the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an downtrend.


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  2. #212
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Ichimoku indicator analysis of Gold for May 19, 2017

    Gold price as expected is pulling back from the important weekly resistance at $1,260. Bulls now we need to see a higher low relative to the May lows at $1,214. A corrective pullback that will not hurt the bullish scenario should hold above $1,234.



    Gold price is trading above the 4-hour cloud. Trend is bullish. Gold price could bounce from current levels as price has found support at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,214. Next important support is at $1,234 where the 61.8% and the cloud supports are found. Bulls should not lose that level. On the other hand bears stopped the rise right at the important resistance of $1,260. Now they need to break back below the cloud for the move towards $1,150-60 to start.



    Red line -long-term resistance

    Gold remains inside the weekly Kumo (cloud). Weekly trend remains neutral. Price remains below the weekly trend line resistance. However the bounce off the lower cloud boundary was a bullish sign. Bulls however need to break above the weekly cloud at $1,280 for the bull trend to be confirmed.


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  3. #213
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for May 22, 2017

    Gold price is overbought in the short-term and justifies a pullback towards $1,240. It is important for Gold bulls to hold above $1,230 and create a new short-term base of a higher low in order to move above $1,280-$1,300 which is the long-term resistance.



    Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud support. Price got rejected at the resistance of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support is at $1,247 and next at $1,230. Price is expected to move lower before higher.



    Gold daily chart shows price above daily cloud but below the 61.8% Fibo level resistance. I expect a pullback and a higher low to be created over this week. As long as price is above $1,213 we target $1,230-40 and next $1,280-$1,300. If the $1,213 low is broken, expect a move towards $1,150-60.


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  4. #214
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 25, 2017



    Overview:
    The USD/CHF pair. The first resistance level is seen at 0.9787 followed by 0.9847, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9691. The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 0.9787. The market is still set to trade around the daily pivot point of 0.9739. This week, it continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9787 to the bottom around 0.9739. The pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the resistance of 0.9787 which is expected to act as major resistance. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9787 and 0.9691. For that reason, the major resistance can be found at 0.9787 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.9691. If the trend breaks the minor support at 0.9691, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.9645 and 0.9600 in order to test the daily support 3. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the area of 0.9787 (resistance).


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  5. #215
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 26, 2017



    Wave summary:
    We continue to look for a corrective decline into the 123.78 - 124.17 area before the next impulsive rally towards 134.30 and 138.52 should be expected. Short-term resistance is now seen at 125.16 and again at 125.43, Only a break above the later will indicate that the correction is complete and more upside towards 134.30 is developing.

    R3: 125.81
    R2: 125.43
    R1: 125.16
    Pivot: 125.00
    S1: 124.86
    S2: 124.17
    S3: 123.78

    Trading recommendation:

    We will re-buy EUR at 124.20 or upon a break above 125.43.


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  6. #216
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

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  7. #217
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    The dollar remained without support

    The US dollar finished the week with large-scale sales, never seeing a single factor that could support it. The formal reason for the decline in investor confidence was the report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on inflation, but this was not the only reason.

    Consumer prices remained unchanged in June while annual inflation slowed to 1.6% from 1.9% a month earlier. Both indicators were worse than expected.

    Also an unpleasant surprise was the decline in retail sales for the second month in a row. Experts expected a slight increase. The slowdown in consumer activity is an alarming factor as it indicates that incoming signals, one after another, about slower economic growth are not accidental and will likely cause a crisis to develop.

    The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index according to the University of Michigan was significantly lower than expected at 93.1 points in July against the forecast of 95.0 points and last month's figure of 95.1 points. The subindex of expectations are declining at the fastest rate, indicating that consumers are preparing for a deterioration in the outlook for the coming months.

    The GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts the US GDP growth for the second quarter at 2.4%. This is higher than the result of the first quarter but significantly below expectations. The first estimate, which was presented in May, came out at 4.3%. At the time, it seemed that the positive momentum in the economy will develop but for two months in a row, the key macroeconomic indicators are worse than forecasts.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York expects that GDP growth will be at 1.9% in Q2. However, this estimate may be too optimistic. At any rate, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking in Congress, said that achieving an economic growth of 3% "will be pretty hard." Recalling the basic scenario by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the average annual growth is set at 4%. Even in this case, the budget deficit in the next ten years will grow to 1.5 trillion dollars and reach a GDP of 5.2%. Weaker growth will significantly accelerate the development of a negative scenario. It can only be overcome through swift and decisive reforms while the situation develops in the opposite way. As indicated in the report of the Ministry of Finance published on Thursday, the budget deficit in June amounted to 90.233 billion dollar within the nine months of the current fiscal year. The negative balance grew by 31% and reached 523 billion. There is no reason to expect that the situation may change as the collection of taxes is reduced. Against the background of a drop in consumer activity, there is no chance of an increase of tax collection.

    Actually, it was the reassessment of the player's prospects for the development of the situation that caused the dollar to fall sharply on Friday. It's not just a matter of low inflation. The fact is that even optimistic models (and the optimistic CBO forecast) do not see good exit scenarios. The Fed may begin to reduce the balance sheets in the coming months. In any case, the preparation of public opinion for this step is being carried out purposefully. Yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that it is necessary to start reducing the Fed's balance sheet "very soon", possibly in September. Low inflation, in his opinion, is temporary. He also added that the achievement of full employment will contribute to higher prices.

    The beginning of the reduction in the balance of the Fed means terminating the practice of refinancing revenues. In other words, the Fed will gradually reduce the repayment of government debts which, against the background of a growing budget deficit and a reduction in the collection of taxes, can have extremely unpleasant consequences for the Trump administration. In September, the government should already receive a result regarding the level of borrowing from the Congress. This will exhaust the latest resources for financing current activities and will make them face the prospect of technical default. However, in order for the Congress to meet Trump and raise the ceiling of national debt, it will be necessary to convince him of the feasibility plans for reforming the tax and health policies. It is necessary to present these plans formally.

    Thus, for the dollar, there is still no reason to resume growth.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  8. #218
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 24, 2017



    Daily Outlook

    The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

    In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

    A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016. In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

    However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

    The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

    This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is being temporarily breached to the upside.

    Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection if any bearish pullback occurs.

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  9. #219
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    AUD/USD prepare to sell on break of key support

    The price is hovering above key support at 0.7871 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and we prepare to sell once price breaks this key level. Our profit target is a push down to next key support level at 0.7741 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

    RSI (55) is seeing bearish momentum within its bearish descending channel.

    Sell below 0.7871. Stop loss is at 0.7937. Take profit is at 0.7741.



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  10. #220
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

    The price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9530 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9436 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

    Stochastic (55,5,3) is right on major resistance at 95%.

    Sell below 0.9530. Stop loss is at 0.9563. Take profit is at 0.9436.



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  11. #221
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

    The price has bounced above our buying entry and is fast approaching our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 130.78 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a drop towards 129.96 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

    Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a strong drop from.

    Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY expecting drops. We are also expecting EUR weakness with strong resistance seen on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

    Sell below 130.78. Stop loss is at 131.08. Take profit is at 129.96.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  12. #222
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis of gold for September 11, 2017

    Gold price opened with a gap down today. Trend remains bullish. Price can find support at $1,330-$1,340 area. Gold price is expected to continue its bullish trend higher.



    Black lines - bullish channel

    Gold price has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. We could see price move a bit lower towards the lower channel boundary or the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,330, This would be a buying opportunity. I remain bullish and expect Gold price to reverse to the upside soon.



    On a daily basis, Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $1.330-$1,300 area. Trend is bullish in ichimoku cloud terms as well. The oscillators are turning downwards from overbought levels but we have no divergence. This implies that price should make new highs after the pullback is over.

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  13. #223
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2017



    All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been reached. The pair is trading above its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9645.

    As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates unchanged. It also announced plans to begin in October shrinking its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities acquired after the 2008 financial crisis. However, according to projections released at the same time by the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank will go ahead for one more rate increase this year and three times next year. This blew a surprise to the market, as investors had previously believed a series of weak inflation readings might alter the Fed's monetary tightening plans.

    To sum up, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further advance to 0.9765 and even to 0.9795 in extension.

    Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

    Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9645, Take Profit: 0.9765

    Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9795, and 0.98830

    Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9590, and 0.9550


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  14. #224
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    Re: Wave Analysis from InstaForex

    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 19, 2017



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1849.
    Strong Resistance:1.1842.
    Original Resistance: 1.1831.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1820.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1792.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1764.
    Original Support: 1.1753.
    Strong Support: 1.1742.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1735.

    Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

 
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